May 6, 2012
Ned Davis Research indicates that rate of change in gas prices is a critical factor stock investors's outlook: when prices at the pump rise more than 30% within a year stocks often slide. Conversely, when gas prices have decreased over a 12 month period, the S.& P. 500 has averaged an increase of about 13%.Interestingly, in early May 2011 a gas averaged $3.96, which was about 35% percent higher than May 2010. In 2012, gas has averaged...
Read More →May 5, 2012
In 2005, U.S. individual investors had 87.2 percent of their equity allocation in domestic stocks despite the fact that the US constitues just 43% of the global equity market.Source: Behavioral Finance: Investors, Corporations and Markets, NY Times (May 2012)
Read More →December 21, 2009
Data according to today’s Wall St. Journal survey of various Treasury primary dealers:§ Forecast for 2-year yield to rise to 1.825% by the end of 2010; current = 0.799%§ Forecast for 10-year note will yield 4.125%; current = 3.548%.§ In June 2007, before the credit crunch, the 10-year yield traded above 5.3%.§ However, the forecast 10-year note’s yield is near past 5-year average (4.1%)§ YTD, Treasury’s have lost 2%§ High-yield,...
Read More →December 21, 2009
§ The dollar is looking better on a relative basis – see the US Dollar Index (USDX)§ Euro is declining as “PIIGs” component of euro is experiencing credit perception issues (Portugual, Ireland, Italy and Greece)§ 60%: Euro is about 60% of USDX§ US Dollar Outlook: Its technical features appear strong although long term its fundamental are weak due to the US deficit picture Bottom Line: Consider an investment in UUP,...
Read More →December 20, 2009
In 2010, technology M&A activity should accelerate as technology firms will look to raise capital, divest noncore assets, wind-down sales increase and acquire rivals to improve competitive positioning. Interesting Technology M&A data points§ $1B: this year, only 31 technology transactions valued at $1 billion or more have been consummated. This is less than half the level seen in 2005-2007.§ 0.9x Revenue: Technology start-up valuation in 1Q09§ 1.4x Revenue: Technology start-up...
Read More →December 20, 2009
S&P 500 has recorded one of the most powerful stock rallies ever since 3/9/09:§ 676.5: S&P low recorded on March 9, 2009§ 1102.47: S&P price as of December 18, 2009§ 62.9%: S&P 500 return since March 9, 2009 low which is one of the most powerful rallies on record§ 22%: YTD S&P 500 stock market return Other trends according to Barron’s:§ 15 million job seekers§ 5 million vacant apartments§ Economy...
Read More →December 19, 2009
Interesting December 2009 data re: Goggle’s primary SaaS: Google Apps below. § 3: Google’s Apps business is 3 years old§ $750M: Google’s App business 2009 revenue§ 2M: # of businesses using Google Apps§ $19B: Microsoft’s 2009 office suite revenue§ $22B: Google’s 2009 revenue§ 60%: Google’s share of online advertising market§ 1k: # of Google employees working on enterprise products, largely Apps.§ $19B: Microsoft’s 2009 office suite revenue§ 4/1/04: Gmail released to...
Read More →December 19, 2009
§ 2.8%: GDP expanded 2.8% in 3Q09 vs. contracting 6.4% in 1Q09§ 7.2M: U.S. economy has lost 7.2 million jobs§ 10%: November 2009 unemployment # § 17: Following the previous recession which concluded in November 2001, companies continued to slash payrolls for 17 of the next 21 months§ 11k: # of payroll jobs lost in November which was the smallest decline since late 2007§ 474k: first-time unemployment 4 week moving average§ ...
Read More →December 19, 2009
§ 70%: # of mutual funds that charge 12b-1 fees§ 12b-1 fees: named after the SEC rule that allows them; fees cover marketing and distribution costs (e.g., financial advisor commissions, 401(k) plan administration, mailing prospectuses, etc…)§ 0.15 To 0.30%: average 12b-1 fee.§ $140b: Since 1990, investors have paid more than $140 billion in 12b-1s§ 8.5%: average mutual fund up-front fee (sales load) in 1980s. Source(s): WSJ
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